The time for superfluous introductory paragraphs has passed. The results are in. Here’s what I predicted vs. what happened, starting with the upsets:
NC Senate 19
Prediction: deViere will hold serve with Democrats and win enough unaffiliated voters to gain a significant early-vote advantage. DeViere and Meredith will be sweating election night returns as deViere’s lead dwindles, but in the end deViere pulls off the upset with a razor thin margin: 50.6-49.4.
Result: deViere 50.26 – Meredith 49.74
What happened: deViere jumped out to an early vote lead of around 2500 votes. The lead dwindled to 700 votes with five precincts remaining. The remaining precincts came in at 10:30 p.m., and deViere hung on to beat Republican Incumbent Wesley Meredith by just over 300 votes.
I’m a bit proud of myself for calling this one so close.
Cumberland County District Court Judge:
Prediction: Incumbent Tal Baggett was endorsed by the local Democratic party, but Caitlin Young Evans has run a smart and tenacious campaign. Females have done well in Cumberland judicial races as of late, but I think Baggett will win with a combination of name recognition and a larger share of Republican and Independent voters. Judge Baggett keeps his seat 53-47.
Result: Evans 56 – Baggett 44
I should have stopped writing my prediction at the end of the pink sentence. This was a “change” election and I, like many, over-estimated the power of incumbency in this race. Evans ran an impressive campaign and outworked her opponent. In the end, she shocked a lot of people in Cumberland County.
US House (9th District)
Prediction: McCready 51 – Harris 49
Actual Vote: McCready 48.77 – Harris 49.43
We knew this one would be close. It was the only congressional race in North Carolina that I thought the Democrats would flip. They failed.
McCready won 6 out of 8 counties in the district, but was annihilated in Union County. It cost him the race.
NC House 44
Prediction: Richardson holds off Republican Linda Devore 53-47.
Result: Richardson 56 – Devore 43
Richardson outperformed even his son’s expectations. The election-day vote actually increased his early-vote lead as the results came in. On a good night for Democrats, Richardson solidified his position as “Olde Fayetteville’s” representative in the North Carolina House.
Other NC General Assembly Races:
Prediction: Ben Clark (Senate 21), Marvin Lucas (House 42), Elmer Floyd (House 43), and John Szoka (House 45) are all in radically gerrymandered districts. They will all be re-elected without difficulty…..
Result: They were all re-elected without much difficulty.
Cumberland County Sheriff:
Prediction: This one is going to be a landslide. You can look at the Democratic and African American turnout in the early vote in Cumberland County and tell that no Democrat is going to lose a county-wide race. Ennis Wright remains our Sheriff by beating Charlie Baxley 60-40.
Result: Wright 63 – Baxley 36
The result speaks for itself in this one.
Cumberland County Clerk of Court:
Prediction: (Cindy Blackwell)….faces the same problem as Charlie Baxley and every other Republican that tries to run county-wide in Cumberland. Lisa Scales will win 56-44.
Result: Scales 59 – Blackwell 41
US House (8th District):
Prediction: Hudson 53 – McNeill 47
Result: Hudson 55.4 – McNeill 44.6
Hudson cruised in this Republican-leaning District, as predicted.
Final Count: 9 for 11
On November 6, 2018, Cumberland County solidified itself as a Democratic stronghold in the era of Donald Trump.