A few days ago, I pointed out how NC’s Covid-19 death rate was an outlier. NC was low in comparison to other states with similar infection rates. I have some more good news, this time in the form of positive cases in the Tar Heel State, and it may help to explain NC’s low death rate.
NC has increased its testing dramatically. 28,679 North Carolinians have been tested as of today:
But, NC is seeing a very small share of positive cases. NC’s positive test rate is only 6.5%.
Meanwhile, the United States as a whole has a positive test rate of 18.3%.
You want a low positive rate. It means you’re testing liberally, ruling out doubt, and getting closer to an accurate measure of the disease in your state.
If your positive rate is high, you could be missing a majority of your cases, especially if you’re being stingy with tests by saving them for serious and critical cases.
Our neighbors to the South have a positive rate of 20.4%, higher than the national average:
Two facts emerge:
- It is likely that far more than 1,293 people have Covid-19 in South Carolina.
- It is less likely that far more than 1,857 people have Covid–19 in North Carolina.
It’s probable that NC has a better grasp of the extent of the disease within its borders. This is probably why SC has more deaths than NC, despite fewer reported cases.
The whole point of this is to get an accurate depiction of the mortality rate and the extent of the disease. In short, how many people will die, and what are the steps, if any, we can take to protect people. With accurate data, you’re less likely to be caught off guard (any more than we already are). You’re also less likely to take extreme mitigation measures that aren’t necessary (like curfews in Fayetteville, NC).
Our Nation’s data is behind “the curve.” North Carolina is trying to catch up and is doing substantially better than the majority of the Union. What you see is what you get here.
Esse Quam Videri.