Democrats are surging in early voting in the newly-modified 19th Senate District.  The potential for Democratic challenger Kirk deViere to take this seat from Republican Senate Whip, Wesley Meredith is growing each day.  Here’s a breakdown of all the voters, by voter registration:

Percentage of Senate 19 Electorate (By Party Registration)

So far, registered Democrats are half of the early voting electorate in the new district.  This is driven in a large part by African Americans.  The tentacles that once captured African Americans in Fayetteville and combined them with Hoke County Democrats have been chopped off by the courts.

OLD SENATE 19

NEW SENATE 19

The result is a much cleaner district and surge in minority voters:

Percentage of Senate 19 Electorate (By Race)

WHY THIS MATTERS:

The 19th Senate District has hosted some of the most expensive legislative races in North Carolina history.  Wesley Meredith raises and spends over a million dollars on a routine basis to keep the seat and he’s on pace this year:

The ironic thing?  The money may not make a difference.  I know, it surprised me too.  But, here’s why:  the Democratic candidate’s vote share in Senate 19 typically tracks the percentage of registered Democrats that make up the electorate. 

Here’s a chart of the Data:

As you can see, registered Democrats look after their own in Cumberland County, even after the million-dollar barrage of negative advertising that Meredith throws their way every two years.  

On paper, it appears that Meredith beat George Tatum (2012), Billy Richardson (2014), and Toni Morris (2016) with a combination of Republican and Independent voters.   I’m not sure he can do that this year.

Registered Democrats are 49.6% of the early vote in District 19.

I’d call this a close race.