Last month, we predicted a quiet Democratic Primary in NC Senate 19 unless one of the candidates threw a punch.  Well an uppercut has been thrown, and like everything in politics at this moment, it’s tied to President Trump.  Ed Donaldson, who has thus far run a minimal campaign, went after Kirk deViere’s past in the following mailer to Democratic voters:

Donaldson’s attack is effective for multiple reasons:

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I like making predictions.  Part of my job as an attorney is to take all the facts, apply them to my knowledge of the law and the court system, and make a prediction into the future.  This means whittling down uncertainty and eliminating risk.  I often make predictions outside of the office, and my wife would probably tell you that I take myself too seriously, but I feel a sense of reward when my foresight is true.  Who doesn’t like being right?

Some people will tell you that your guess is only as good as your information.  Others like our president will tell you that some people have an ability, a certain instinct or intuition that enables them to make a good prediction.

I hope the following includes both good information and instinct:

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Read a breakdown of the vicious primary battle between Senator Ben Clark and his primary challenger, Naveed Aziz, using this link.

North Carolina’s Senate District 21 was drawn by the General Assembly as a safe Democratic district.  In short, it was packed with Democratic voters (especially African Americans) in an attempt to water down their influence in Cumberland County and make neighboring Senate District 19 safe for a Republican.  In the 2016 general election, incumbent Ben Clark won District 21 with 71.74% of the vote.

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