Primary Turnout Will Buck the Trend

I like making predictions.  Part of my job as an attorney is to take all the facts, apply them to my knowledge of the law and the court system, and make a prediction into the future.  This means whittling down uncertainty and eliminating risk.  I often make predictions outside of the office, and my wife would probably tell you that I take myself too seriously, but I feel a sense of reward when my foresight is true.  Who doesn’t like being right?

Some people will tell you that your guess is only as good as your information.  Others like our president will tell you that some people have an ability, a certain instinct or intuition that enables them to make a good prediction.

I hope the following includes both good information and instinct:

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(D) on (D) Violence in Senate 21 Primary

North Carolina’s Senate District 21 was drawn by the General Assembly as a safe Democratic district.  In short, it was packed with Democratic voters (especially African Americans) in an attempt to water down their influence in Cumberland County and make neighboring Senate District 19 safe for a Republican.  In the 2016 general election, incumbent Ben Clark won District 21 with 71.74% of the vote.

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54 Torpedoes or Sacrificial Lambs?

Below is a seemingly unimportant statistic, but it has the potential to change the direction of North Carolina politics for the next decade:

  • Number of Uncontested, General Election, Legislative Races in 2016: 54
  • Number of Uncontested, General Election, Legislative Races in 2018: 0

Due to severe partisan (and racial) gerrymandering, North Carolina’s counties are littered with “safe” legislative districts that favor a political party over another.  Because Republicans drew the lines, Republicans are favored more often.  Win the partisan primary in one of these districts, you get to go to Raleigh. Continue reading

New vs. Old in Senate 19

The boundaries of Senate District 19 have been re-drawn.  I will not go deep into the history of the court battle that lead to the changes, but the district was drawn in 2010 to exclude as many African Americans as possible, and the federal courts did not find that constitutionally permissible.  Republican Wesley Meredith won the seat in 2010 and has had little trouble beating down the opposition every two years since.

All that may or may not change this year.  The lines no longer favor a Republican and make up what FLIPNC calls the third most “flippable” Senate District in North Carolina.

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