The stock market is tanking, interest rates are rising, and a value meal at McDonalds will run you ten bucks if you get an apple pie. The post-covid world is not as pretty as we imagined.
From the yard signs scattered about town, you probably know we have an election coming up in a few days. Do you care? Is there an issue that has you motivated to vote in this primary?
We should be talking about a lot in politics right now, because decisions are being made that will shape our short-term future. Instead, it seems the world is looking ahead, trying to find some solace of normalcy.
In the midst of uncertainty, politicians like to sit and wait. This seems to be the case from City Hall to Congress. Everyone’s waiting to see how it shapes up.
There’s a problem with the wait and see approach. A lot of these primary races are crowded. There’s eleven Democrats and fourteen Republicans running for one U.S. Senate seat in North Carolina. There’s six people running for Mayor of Fayetteville. Most City Council races have multiple candidates.
When you’re in a crowd, you’ve got to stand out. You stand out by standing for something. Say what you want about Trump, but that’s how he got through the Republican field in 2016, and he wasn’t nice about it. He defined himself and his opponents with vicious clarity.
I know we’ll get back to torching one another as soon as the primary is over. Then it’ll be all-out partisan warfare going into the midterm elections.
I’ll leave you with this: Voting starts in 48 hours and the leading story in the news is Madison Crawthorn accidentally bringing a gun into the Charlotte airport.
We’re in the home-stretch of the primary election season for 2022. Early voting begins in just over two weeks. It’s time to shed some light on some interesting races and make some early predictions.
Note: For state primary races, you need at least 30% of the vote to secure your party’s spot in the General Election. If no candidate wins 30%, there is a run-off.
NC Senate District 19
Republicans: Wesley Meredith and Dennis Britt
Meredith is going to win the primary. He has the money and name recognition from holding the seat in the past.
Democrats: Kirk deViere (incumbent), Val Applewhite, Ed Donaldson
This is going to be a horse-race between deViere and Applewhite and they know it. Each has begun to attack the other with negative mailers. Applewhite’s latest mailer compares deViere to Trump.
DeViere is fighting for his political future, and this one is too early to predict. It’s likely this race will have some fireworks in the next few weeks, but unless some kind of hydrogen bomb is dropped, it’s not going to matter. This primary is going to be won on the ground, door-to-door, person-to-person.
Advantage: The one with the most stamina.
NC House District 44
Republicans: None. The winner of the Democratic Primary gets the seat.
Democrats: Charles Smith and Terry Johnson
Terry Johnson came within a few hundred votes of upsetting Billy Richardson in this district two years ago. Richardson announced he was retiring, leaving the seat open this time around.
Charles Smith is a 30-year-old attorney that works for Johnathan Charleston’s law firm. Charleston has been in the news a lot lately. If there’s a controversy in municipal government, Charleston tends to be around: PWC Lobbying/Tisha Waddell’s Resignation, Spring Lake Finances, Halfway House on Cain Road, etc. His associate, Smith, looks the part, but I couldn’t tell you a reason why he is running or what he’ll do if he wins.
If I could predict this race right now, I think Johnson wins it by 5-10 points. He’ll align his campaign with Applewhite’s and benefit from her coattails and grassroots organization. You’ll see a lot of their signs together:
The majority of voters in the Democratic primary will be black, and Smith needs to give them a compelling reason to choose him. Time is running out.
District Court Judge – Seat 6
Democrats: Adam Phillips, Rosalyn Hood, Sherry Miller
Adam Phillips is a former public defender and was appointed to the seat by Roy Cooper after April Smith retired. April Smith recently endorsed Phillips. A video of Smith’s endorsement can been seen on Phillips’ Facebook Page: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100075747082125
Rosalyn Hood is a prosecutor and has run for District Court Judge in the past.
Sherry Miller is a family law/divorce attorney.
The three-way nature of this race gives Phillips an edge. Women have dominated county-wide judicial races lately, but there’s two of them on this ballot this time.
At the same time, Hood will get the financial support of a lot of attorneys, many African American like herself.
It’s going to be an interesting race.
Advantage: Phillips, barely.
I’ll try to cover some City races in the next couple of weeks. If you’re a candidate and wish to post something on crosscreekdivide.com, feel free to reach out.
When I was a student at UNC, I had a buddy from Nash County. One evening, he noticed a Ducks Unlimited print on my apartment wall and the conversation turned to hunting. He bragged about killing twenty wood ducks one morning a few years back in a beaver swamp near his home.
“You can only kill two.” I replied.
I can still hear his slow, deep, drawl:
“We just kept shooting them.”
It upset me, but I left it there. You either respect the game (laws), or you don’t. He didn’t.
Governor Roy Cooper likes to tout his roots. If you’ve followed North Carolina politics during his two-term reign, you’ve probably heard the story about his watermelon patch or the one about him blocking Phil Ford’s shot in a high school game. Southern, white Democrats are a dying breed, and Cooper’s “one of us” appeal allows him to steal enough Independent and Republican votes to stay in power.
If you grew up in the Eastern part of the state like he did, you’ll notice that there’s a little bit of spite in the people, fire and brimstone even, that bites sharper than the apple cider vinegar we put on our pork. You can trace it back to the Revolution. We came here to be left alone and then stayed put. The farther east you drive on 64 or 70, the deeper it gets. We’ve got a mean streak if you push us too far. Shut your mouth and play along, and we’ll get along just fine.
Fight that mean streak, and you’ll elect Terry Sanford.
Foster that mean streak, and you’ll elect Jesse Helms.
Temper that mean streak, and you’ll elect Roy Cooper and Donald Trump in the same election.
Democratic Senators and Cumberland County
Tony Rand represented Cumberland County in the North Carolina Senate from 1981 to 2009, becoming one of the most powerful men in the state in the process. After his retirement, Margaret Dickson took the seat. She was defeated in the next election by Republican Wesley Meredith in a vicious campaign that made national news.
Meredith got the backing of the Republican Party and developed a massive war chest. He won four elections in a row. I had a front row seat to one of them in 2014. Meredith and the Republican attack machine ran ads on the 5:00 news claiming my old man “had no moral compass.” Another ad played horror music, showed an empty baby crib, and claimed my dad got a child killer off. I had a son in a crib at the time.
Then came Kirk deViere.
Meredith lost two elections in a row.
Meredith has filed to run against deViere again this year.
This week, in a head-scratcher, Cooper endorsed deViere’s Democratic opponent.
Cooper has been in politics since 1986, and it’s fairly unlikely that he wants to go back to Nash County after having the best seats in the Dean Dome for the past eight years. He’s going to make a run at the Vice Presidency (if Harris continues to flounder), the Presidency (if Biden’s health gives out), or the U.S. Senate.
In order to get to the next level, Cooper needed to be more than another Tim Kaine. He needed something to set him apart. He had his sights on two issues: Covid and Medicaid expansion.
N.C.’s Covid response started off well enough. We were doing better than the rest of the South due to our increased restrictions. Then the reality of extremely contagious respiratory diseases set in and we quickly ended up as bad as everyone else. None of it was worth it. Our school kids will continue to suffer the ramifications of Cooper’s leadership, and Republicans are foaming at the mouth to remind swing voters who closed the businesses and schools across the country.
Medicaid expansion quickly became all Cooper had left. He wanted to use the power of his veto pen to force Medicaid expansion into the state budget. He needed unanimous (or close to it) Democratic support in the legislature to get it.
DeViere and a group of moderate Democrats worked with Republicans to get a budget passed. In doing so, they did very, very well for their constituents back home. Cooper signed the budget, but it wasn’t what he wanted.
So what happens when a lame duck Governor from Nash County gets angry?
“It’s my birthday, it’s my birthday,” Applewhite sang happily during a phone call Tuesday to talk about the endorsement. She turns 61 on Saturday, she said.
“It’s huge,” she said. “It’s unusual for a governor to engage in a primary.”
“I think it’s two things. It’s his confidence in who I am, and the issues of Medicaid expansion, paying our teachers — these are clear, no-brainer issues. But what’s more important is that it shows (Cooper’s) lack of support for our current senator.”
It’s all personal and petty with a touch of spite. More importantly, it’s bad politics.
Cooper beat Republican Dan Forest in 2020 with only 51.5% of the vote. He didn’t get a resounding mandate for a liberal agenda. If North Carolina Democrats want to regain control, they’re going to have to win swing districts like deViere’s. More importantly, they are increasingly becoming an urban, minority party, out of touch with half of the State. DeViere brought together a coalition of voters and beat the Republican machine, twice. Cooper doesn’t seem concerned with that. In the end, he only seems concerned with himself. Maybe eight years in a mansion does that to someone? Regardless, it might be time to re-learn an old lesson from a Nash County beaver swamp:
You kill all your good ducks, and you can’t go hunting next year.
There’s still a chain link fence around the Market House, and Kirk deViere has some work to do to keep his N.C. Senate seat.
Former District Court Judge, Clarence “Ed” Donaldson, and former City Council member, Val Applewhite have filed to run against deViere in the upcoming Democratic primary.
Donaldson lost to deViere in the 2018 Democratic primary, running under his given name “Clarence”:
Donaldson will appear on the ballot as “Ed” this time around. Fool me once?
The winner of the Democratic primary is likely to face Wesley Meredith (R), who also filed this week.
Meredith has been longing for his old seat for the past four years. He’s lost to deViere twice now, but perhaps Meredith believes that a nation-wide Republican surge in response to the floundering Biden Administration will give him an advantage in 2022. He may be right.
This is a good time to remind folks that in 2018, I predicted the result of the Meredith/deViere race within a few hundredths of a percentage point:
For as long as I can remember, Cumberland County has been chopped up into various Congressional Districts. This limits our influence in Washington and our ability to elect “one of our own” to Congress.
Due to recent court rulings, the legislature was forced to redraw the Congressional map, and for a short while, it looked like we might finally get our chance.
Our new “District 7” looked like this:
It was essentially the “Cape Fear River” District, and it was competitive. Either a Democrat or a Republican could win it. As a proponent of moderation in a time of partisan insanity, this was a dream.
Like most dreams, it was too good to be true. The courts got involved again and re-drew the re-draw.
The map now looks like this:
Fayetteville is split in two. My every-other-day running loop is now in two congressional districts:
The new District 7 and District 9 are not “competitive.” A Republican will win each, easily.
What It Means
Fayetteville’s voting power in Washington will remain diluted for the foreseeable future. It will be difficult for a Cumberland resident to win one of these seats. Our best hope is a local Republican with resources and political savvy, and perhaps a boat to ride up or down the Cape Fear River and make a big enough splash.